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Cotiviti's COVID-19 Outbreak Tracker

Editor's note: Click to enlarge the map above. Cotiviti's latest forecast was made Friday, December 31, 2021. While the COVID-19 Outbreak Tracker is no longer being updated, our most recent forecast is captured on this page for archival purposes. 

COVID-19 Outbreak Tracker

Using both clinical and claims data from Caspian Clarity, Cotiviti’s longitudinal data and analytics ecosystem, we have created this map to help forecast which geographic areas may be impacted by COVID-19 in the immediate future. Darker areas indicate more leading indicators of potentially hidden outbreak based on the signature care profile of COVID-19. Highlighted areas that have not already seen a surge of confirmed cases are at greater risk of hidden outbreak within the next seven to ten days. Our latest forecast was made Friday, December 31, 2021. 

COVID-19 Health Risk Tracker

On this second map, darker shaded areas indicate subgroups that have an increased relative risk of contracting medically attended COVID-19 based on prevalence and management of their chronic conditions, including respiratory and cardiovascular disorders, hypertension, and diabetes. Higher-risk regions may experience increased strains on healthcare resource capacity (click to enlarge).

For those with underlying conditions, the age-group specific relative risk score generated for each state indicates the risk of contracting COVID-19 requiring medical attention relative to those with no underlying conditions. Patients with underlying conditions in higher-risk age groups should continue to rigorously adhere to public health guidelines and their care management plans.

Cotiviti supports the guidance that all Americans diligently follow social distancing guidelines and stay-at-home orders to help flatten the curve and protect vulnerable populations from COVID-19. This is particularly important in areas of emerging hidden outbreak, as many individuals with COVID-19 are asymptomatic but can still transmit the disease.


The U.S. healthcare system has been severely challenged by the lack of availability for COVID-19 testing, but leading indicators can help predict potential areas of concern before testing takes place. Each patient who is eventually diagnosed with severe complications of COVID-19 while in an intensive care unit has progressed through a series of tests, procedures, diagnoses, and pharmaceutical interventions. This pattern, which includes screening procedures such as telemedicine, rapid flu testing, and chest x-rays, can be observed clearly in the tens of millions of medical claims from all fifty states processed through Cotiviti’s Caspian Clarity platform on a daily basis. By comparing this current claims data against historical trends, anomalies emerge that could indicate areas of hidden outbreak.